Going After A Flush on the Web
Posted in Poker on 08/29/2012 01:21 am by Felipe
Chasing a flush on-line – Occasionally the numbers just do not add up!
There’s an age old debate in poker – must you chase a flush? Very first of all we should define what we mean here by "chasing a flush online."
Chasing anything in Texas hold’em poker will be the practice of betting to stay in a palm in the hope that you will produce a far better palm, even though you may have absolutely nothing at the time. So chasing a flush suggests gambling that you will acquire the card or card which you ought to complete your flush palm within the turn or river. You cannot chase a flush prior to the flop because at that time you only have two cards so the flush isn’t on.
So let’s say you happen to be betting one of the big poker web sites online, you have been dealt the Ace and 9 of spades and you’ve paid to see the flop.
The flop is 2s seven spades Kd and one of your competitors comes out wagering strongly with a fair sized raise, what do you do?
Initially of all ask yourself what variety of hands you happen to be up against. The possibilities are triples, one more flush draw, a pair of Kings or a complete bluff, so as it stands you’re only winning against the bluff with your Ace. To the other hands if you hit a spade in the last 2 cards you might have the nut flush and could only lose to a full house or four of a kind.
Within the face of it you could possibly assume that statistically you may have about a 50-50 possibility of hitting your spade, after all there is two cards to come and 4 suits so there must be about a half possibility, correct?
Wrong!
You already have 2 of the spades in your palm and there is one more 2 showing within the table, so you know five cards and 4 of them are spades. That means you may have nine spades left offered out of the 47 cards you haven’t seen, which is only a forty two percent possibility of catching your flush.
When you do bet about the turn and do not produce your flush, what do you do then? You might have possibly now grow to be pot-committed, you may have put so much into the pot that you just could possibly as nicely bet again around the river unless there is a massive raise or all-in in opposition to you, except now your odds of making the flush have dropped dramatically to only twenty one per cent.
Except what of that other factor, the mysterious web poker syndrome? What I mean by that’s though you statistically have a 42 % likelihood of producing a flush, is that what actually occurs in reality? Should you played the same palm at the very same on line poker table one hundred times would you have a flush forty two times? From my personal encounter I doubt it. Flushes seem to come around a great deal much less often than 42 out of 100 times!
That is just my own opinion and I am positive the poker web-sites would tell you a different story, except the way I see it is forty two % could be the very Ideal you happen to be ever going to acquire and you may perhaps nicely have a good deal less likelihood than that of hitting your flush.
Bottom line? Chasing a flush on-line is really a quite risky technique that sucks you in and over commits you, with out giving you sufficient of a probability of pulling out the succeeding hand.